In an era of “big data” with data-driven decisions and data-driven companies in vogue, one must wonder, what would have happened if the Pilgrims had had access to “big data”.  Would this had changed the course of history.  If the Pilgrims had predictive analytics that would have told them that it was likely that half of their group would perish by the end of their first winter in the new world, would they have come anyway?  Would Squanto have returned from the old world to his former village, if he could have predicted the spread of the small pox plague that wiped out his tribe?  Would my ancestors have come from Bavaria if they could have predicted what awaited them?

While I think the use of “big data” and more data-driven decisions is generally a good thing, I wonder how useful data-driven decisions are when making some of the biggest decisions in life.  In the past, in the absence of data, people have taken large risks based on faith which have changed the history of the world. If we become dependent on data to make decisions, will progress slow, will some of the world’s greatest advances or innovations be lost or delayed?

Like the Pilgrims, my ancestors left Europe due to religious persecution and came to the United States to worship in accordance with their beliefs.  I don’t know what options they may have had, but after the King of Bavaria turned down their final plea to worship separately from the sanctioned Catholic and Protestant state churches, they made the decision to immigrate to another country where they didn’t even speak the language.  I’m not sure that a data-driven analysis would have highlighted this option as a strategy destined for success, but for them it seemed to work.   I think the same is true for many longer term strategic decisions whether they be corporate or personal.  The risks and rewards are great.  There are many unknowns and there is little data to provide concrete direction.  Even with all the advances in big data and predictive analytics, it still takes faith and a vision to leave the familiar behind to do something completely new and different whether it’s venturing out to a new country or launching a new product.  So on Thanksgiving, I’m thankful for my great-great grandfather who left his home and immigrated to the “new world” even without big data and analytics to help him.